The Invested

Fixed Income Outlook and Opportunities for 2025

What are fixed income markets expect from a second Trump presidency? And where might investors find opportunities? In this episode, Konstantin Boehmer, Head of Mackenzie’s Fixed Income Team, discusses the Bank of Canada’s approach and the Canadian economy’s outlook, addressing the threat of tariffs, low productivity, and rising unemployment. Konstantin also shares his insights on the US economic landscape, the potential impacts of a Trump presidency on fixed income markets, and global investment opportunities in fixed income.  

This episode was recorded on January 9, 2025.

Special: 2025 ETF Outlook with Prerna Mathews

With the Canadian ETF market experiencing remarkable growth in 2024, trust and adoption of ETFs have surged among a diverse range of investors. Will this momentum continue into 2025? In this episode, Prerna Mathews, Head of ETFs at Mackenzie Investments, discusses the 2025 ETF Outlook. She delves into the sector’s remarkable growth and innovation highlighting 2024’s record inflows of $76 billion into ETFs in Canada—a staggering 45% increase over previous records. Prerna also shares insights into why more advisors and their clients are embracing ETFs and how these investment vehicles can be instrumental in building resilient portfolios.

This episode was recorded on January 6, 2025.

Dustin Reid – Tariffs, Inflation, and a Hawkish Fed Outlook

In this episode, Dustin Reid, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the Fed’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and its implications for both the US and Canadian markets. He highlights the Fed’s forecast for core PCE inflation at 2.5% for 2025, which exceeds their 2% target, and discusses how the Fed is now factoring in the potential economic impacts of tariffs—a notable shift from their traditional approach. Dustin also examines significant global events, such as changes in government leadership and ongoing trade tensions, and their influence on market behavior.

This episode was recorded on December 19, 2024.

Special: 2025 Market Outlook with Lesley Marks and Steve Locke

The sweeping Republican victory is expected to have potentially significant implications for geopolitical risk and trade flows, and for the outlook of various asset classes and sectors. On this special episode, Lesley Marks, CIO of Equities, and Steve Locke, CIO of Fixed Income and Multi-Asset Strategies, discuss their market outlook for 2025.

Topics discussed in their conversation include:

• How an incoming Trump administration could potentially benefit stocks, particularly small caps, and certain segments of the bond market
• Why the Bank of Canada will need to continue cutting rates in 2025 and potentially more aggressively than expected
• Why the resource sector may be poised for strong performance in 2025

For more insights and perspectives, download our 2025 market outlook.

This episode was recorded on December 3, 2024.

John Cook – The Energy Transition Outlook Post-US Election

Following the Republican electoral sweep, discussions have emerged about the effect the Trump administration may have on the clean energy sector – despite the US accounting for only a small percentage of the industry. On this episode, John Cook, Portfolio Manager and Co-Lead of the Mackenzie Greenchip Team, discusses the current state of the energy transition and clean tech investments, global opportunities, and how the incoming administration could affect environmental policies and investments. As a pioneer in environmental thematic investing, John believes the underlying drivers of the energy transition will remain unchanged.

This episode was recorded on November 19, 2024.

Jules Boudreau – The Trump Trade and US Small Caps

On this episode, Jules Boudreau, Senior Economist at Mackenzie Investments, discusses the potential impacts of a second Trump administration on US small caps. Jules highlights how US small caps are poised for potential growth, citing cheaper valuations, greater cyclicality, and higher leverage on balance sheets, but emphasizes the necessity of rate cuts and sustained US growth. Additionally, Jules examines the bond market’s reaction to increased government deficits under a Trump administration and explores the challenges facing the Canadian economy.

Further reading:

- The narrow window for small caps

This episode was recorded on November 15, 2024.

Adam Gofton – The Ivy Approach to Long-Term Investing

In this episode, Adam Gofton, Portfolio Manager on the Mackenzie Ivy Team, discusses the team’s investment philosophy and approach to long-term investing. Adam emphasizes the importance of finding quality companies at reasonable prices and highlights how corporate culture, economic resilience, and a strong balance sheet are key factors to long-term success. He also explains why the outcome of the US election won’t result in any major changes to the portfolio, as the team continues to focus on investing in high-quality companies that can perform well across different environments.

This episode was recorded on October 31, 2024.

Dustin Reid – Market Reactions to US Election Results

In this episode, Dustin Reid, Chief Fixed Income Strategist provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential economic and market impacts of President-elect Trump’s return to the White House. Dustin explores the implications of Trump’s proposed economic policies on supply chains, inflation, and the global economy, and expected focus on immigration and deregulation. Dustin also discusses the Fed’s recent rate cut, future monetary policy, and the challenges ahead.

This episode was recorded on November 8, 2024.

Dustin Reid – Analyzing the Bank of Canada’s Rate Cut Decision

In this episode, Dustin Reid, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, discusses the Bank of Canada’s decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points and what investors may expect in the coming months. In China, recent stimulus measures have sparked both optimism and skepticism in the markets. Dustin provides his insights and the potential impacts on the global economy. Lastly, Dustin provides an update on the state of the US economy and explores how evolving dynamics in polling and betting markets ahead of the US election may influence market behaviour and various asset classes.

This episode was recorded on October 23, 2024.

ETFs Explained: Debunking Common Myths and Misconceptions

Are active ETFs really just ‘lite’ versions of mutual funds? In this episode, Prerna Mathews, VP of ETF Product Strategy, and Chad Wood, ETF Strategist at Mackenzie Investments, debunk this and other common ETF myths and misconceptions. Their conversation also explores how ETFs are built, what can be included in them, and how they are brought to market.

Further reading:

- Your step-by-step guide to active ETF due diligence

This episode was recorded on October 16, 2024.